2021 C&O Canal 100 Mile Preview

After 7 long months, it’s finally time to toe the line at another 100 mile race. C&O Canal was my first 100 miler back in 2015. It also ended up being my first DNF (mile 69). I went back in 2016, got my buckle, and pretty much decided never to go back. It wasn’t so much a knock on the race itself, which has the low key ultra vibe atmosphere I love in spades. It was more that there are tons of other 100 mile races out there now and I’d like to sample as many of them as I can.

And it was even more the weather. Running a hundred miles is hard. Running them in cold, rainy temperatures is even harder. Guess what the Maryland weather’s like in late April. Sigh. I’ve been checking the weather forecasts for the past couple months and they’ve consistently been perfect (dry, mid-60 highs) up until a couple days ago. Now it looks like rain, showers, and some more rain.

Despite that outlook, I’m really looking forward to the race. I’ve come to realize that I would rather run my least favorite hundred, than not run one at all. I mean, these aren’t supposed to be “fun” in the traditional sense of the word. It’s all about overcoming the challenges presented. Hopefully, my additional experience will let me deal with the conditions better than my prior attempts.

The race itself has changed a little in the past five years. The section of the C&O canal used was shortened so there are now 3 “loops” of 40/30/30 instead of the two 60/40 before. COVID protocols have forced a 4 wave start (I’m in the second) and limited runners to only 1 crew member who can’t leave the start/finish at Manidokan. I rely on my wife more to drive me to and from the races than during the race itself so am not expecting this to impact my race too much on Saturday.

Demographics

Ever since I started running ultras, I’ve been interested in the type of person who would sign up for them. What kind of person would want to do something like this. And how long have they been at this. The below tables are based on data that I pulled from Ultrasignup. While the data is pretty US centric, it is quite encompassing as all of my results are listed on there.

This is a pretty typical distribution for a 100 mile start with 80/20 male/female ratio. General race experience matches up as well, though there are a couple of entrants with over 200 races behind them. It’s hard for me to wrap my mind around pinning on a bib that many times regardless of distance.

When I first started running ultras (and especially hundreds), I just assumed that everyone else at the races were grizzled veterans. That I was the only one with limited to no experience. Turns out the opposite is true. Forty percent of those toeing the line on Saturday have 5 or fewer ultra finishes and a slight majority (52%) have never finished a 100 miler. There’s even 13 who have never finished an ultra race though I’m willing to bet they’ve done one in training at some point.

And all the way at the other end of the spectrum is Frederick F Davis III who has achieved my goal of finishing a hundred 100 mile races. Hopefully I’ll bump into him at some point and be able to pick his brain on his longevity secret.

Expectations

The last time I ran a hundred miler (Pine Creek) I set a PR at 21:32. That was accomplished with a . . . let’s call it a less than optimal pacing plan. On top of that, I’ve just finished up my highest volume training block ever.

So obviously I’m thinking a massive PR is potentially staring me in the face. For some reason, I’ve got 20 hours sitting in my mind. Not because I have any concrete data translating my training paces to 100 mile times. More that it’s a round number than anything else. How hard can it possibly be to run a twelve minute pace? In reality it’s hard because it’s so slow. The slowest I can really run flat ground is about 9-10 minutes any more. This was my problem at Pine Creek where I ran really easy through 25miles at a 10 minute average pace, however this was way too fast to be sustainable. My easy wasn’t easy enough.

So this time, I’m going to mix in walking right from mile zero. My plan is to start at an 11 minute average pace and see how long I can keep that up. If everything goes perfectly, I think I can probably manage this through 50 miles. Then the fun will be in seeing how I manage the fade. I’ll end up mostly walking 16-17 minute miles at some point. The further I can push this towards the end of the race, the better chance I have of cracking the elusive 20 hour barrier.

But a hundred miles is a long distance and many things could go wrong. I can’t wait to get out there and see what kind of adventure I have in store for myself.